I would venture to bet that no one honestly thinks the chances of HI beating AI and the chances of AI conquering HI is exactly 50/50. That is to say, I think everyone has an opinion one way or the other — even if the difference in probability is only marginal.

The exception I’ll admit here is lack of knowledge. Like, if you were to ask a 6 year old this question they might say “I don’t know” and they would be telling the truth- they honestly don’t know.

Thanks for writing this, it’s a great article!